IDC Predicts GenAI Smartphones to Boost Global Shipments in 2024
The global smartphone market is set for a rebound in 2024, driven by the rising popularity of GenAI smartphones and affordable Android devices. According to IDC’s latest forecast, global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year, reaching 1.23 billion units. This growth marks a positive turnaround for an industry that has faced several challenges in recent years.
Growth Driven by Affordable Android Devices
A key driver of this growth is the surge in affordable Android devices, particularly in emerging markets. IDC’s senior research director, Nabila Popal, highlights that Android smartphones are expected to grow at a rate nine times faster than iOS devices in 2024. Specifically, Android shipments are projected to increase by 7.1%, while iOS is expected to see a modest 0.8% growth.
This disparity is largely due to increased competition for Apple in China and the high sales baseline set by the iPhone in previous years. However, there could be a potential upside for iOS if Apple successfully integrates GenAI features into its upcoming iPhone models and secures local AI partnerships in China.
The Rise of GenAI Smartphones
One of the most significant trends highlighted by IDC is the rapid adoption of GenAI smartphones. These devices, which incorporate generative AI capabilities, are forecasted to grow by an astonishing 344% in 2024. By the end of the year, GenAI smartphones are expected to make up 18% of the total smartphone market.
Anthony Scarsella, IDC’s research director for Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, notes that GenAI features will likely become standard in flagship models. These features, which offer advanced on-device AI capabilities, are set to differentiate premium smartphones from their competitors. As a result, the average selling price for GenAI smartphones is expected to be more than double that of non-GenAI devices, further fueling the trend towards premiumization in the smartphone industry.
Recovery in the Smartphone Market
The smartphone market’s recovery in 2024 follows a challenging period marked by declining shipments and economic uncertainties. IDC’s data shows that the market grew by 12% in the first quarter of 2024 and by 9% in the second quarter. This steady growth has boosted confidence in the industry, with expectations of continued positive performance in the latter half of the year.
Supporting this outlook, research from Canalys also revealed strong growth in the global smartphone market during the second quarter of 2024, with shipments reaching 288.9 million units. This marks three consecutive quarters of growth, driven by product innovation and improved business conditions.
Market Leaders and Their Strategies
Despite only modest shipment increases, Samsung continues to lead the global smartphone market, shipping 53.5 million units in the second quarter of 2024. Apple, holding second place with 45.6 million units, has benefited from strong momentum in North America and emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region.
China’s Xiaomi closely follows, with 42.3 million units shipped and a market share of 15%. The company’s competitive product offerings and improved macroeconomic conditions in Greater China have mirrored global market growth. As Chinese brands increasingly adopt GenAI features, they aim to capture the rising demand for premium smartphones both domestically and internationally.
Samsung, for its part, is expected to focus on integrating GenAI features across its Galaxy ecosystem to create compelling value propositions for consumers. This strategy is likely to include exclusive AI capabilities in its flagship models. Meanwhile, Apple is anticipated to drive replacement demand in key markets through its AI strategy, which may involve hybrid models and enhanced privacy and personalization features, particularly with Siri.
Modest Growth Expected in 2024
While the smartphone market is on a path to recovery, analysts do not expect to see double-digit growth in 2024. According to Canalys, the market is projected to grow in the mid-single digits, supported by recovering inventory levels, eased import restrictions, and a better economic climate.
However, the introduction of GenAI smartphones and the ongoing innovation in both hardware and software are set to be crucial factors in sustaining this growth. As the market evolves, manufacturers will likely continue to focus on delivering enhanced user experiences and new functionalities to meet the increasing demand for smarter, more capable devices.
Conclusion: The Future of Smartphones in 2024
The year 2024 is shaping up to be a pivotal one for the smartphone industry, with GenAI smartphones leading the charge in global shipment growth. As affordable Android devices continue to gain traction in emerging markets and premium brands incorporate advanced AI features, the smartphone market is poised for a strong recovery.
With major players like Samsung, Apple, and Xiaomi adapting to these trends, consumers can expect a wave of innovative devices that offer new levels of convenience, personalization, and performance. As the industry moves forward, the impact of GenAI smartphones will likely continue to reshape the landscape, driving growth and setting the stage for the next generation of mobile technology.
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